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Forum:2007 Atlantic hurricane season
August Week 3 AoI: Another Day, Another (African) Wave Excuse the length of the title, but it does appear another wave is ready to come off of the coast, and not only that, but a few models develop an Invest-equivalent low, with practically all of them putting something in the Central Atlantic. I'm not exactly sure if this is really that big, but the convection on land does look promising. 68-100-190-56 13:36, 15 August 2007 (UTC) :I don't see anything of interest out there, but if there is a low with any convection with it and the conditions are as good a NHC is saying they are for Dean, then I could see something forming. -- SkyFury 15:22, 15 August 2007 (UTC) ::This might just be a problem with the models, but I'm not sure (every single one develops it into at least a low, not necessarily closed off, but a low), since it would be quite a coincidence. I would, however, suspect than anything there would have somewhat of a chance of forming. 68-100-190-56 15:29, 15 August 2007 (UTC) :::GFS turns it into a hurricane after Dean's second landfall. Link. 68-100-190-56 11:31, 16 August 2007 (UTC) ::::Doesn't seem too likely, it develops it at a record low latitude. Cyclone1(14:45 UTC -16/08/2007) It doesn't, does it? But other models develop it higher. I'm not sure the low would track that far south anyway. It certainly is possible though. 68-100-190-56 16:00, 16 August 2007 (UTC) :CMC runs it into Georgia/Carolinas as a hurricane, developing much higher. Still can't figure out what it's developing though. 68-100-190-56 17:21, 16 August 2007 (UTC) I'm going to make a few enters here so that the next post will stand out, ok? That's better Anyway, the wave is now looking pretty nice, with the low still mostly separate. It's been looking good for a while now, but I haven't been paying attention. CMC predicts a cyclone from the low and the wave, but the wave shows now signs of development besides impressive convection, so I'm not sure what kind of drugs it's on this time. 68-100-190-56 21:23, 17 August 2007 (UTC) ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE E ATLC ALONG 32W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A BROAD ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE SURROUNDING LOW TO MID CLOUD FIELD...ESPECIALLY FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 28W-37W. HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS MINIMAL NEAR THIS CIRCULATION WITH ONLY ONE SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED NEAR 16N32W. A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE SRN PORTION OF THE AXIS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 24W-34W...WHICH MAY BE MORE ASSOCIATED WITH SPEED CONVERGENCE S OF THE ITCZ. They're wrong about the convection thing, by the way. IP 01:05, 18 August 2007 (UTC) :Mention in the TWO. Looks like nothing. Cyclone1(21:02 UTC -19/08/2007) ::THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED 300 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW NEAR BARBADOS APPEARS UNLIKELY. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TODAY...HOWEVER...A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. Hmm.. latest TWO is more interesing. Cyclone1(21:35 UTC -19/08/2007) :::Hmm. That's slightly disconcerting. If that countinues, it will probably be more the lack of information than any bad news. It could develop, it could be nothing. There's just no way to know. We just have to wait and see. -- SkyFury 22:14, 19 August 2007 (UTC) 92L.INVEST That blob of thunderstorms east of the Bahamas. Anyway, shear is becoming lower, so it does have some potential to develop. No surface low right now, but one could potentially form later this week. Cainer91 14:27, 20 August 2007 (UTC) :50% bet that Felix would could out from this blob... RoswellAtup 15:02, 20 August 2007 (UTC) ::Good chance of Felix, but also probably a fishspinner. 69.86.16.159 17:24, 20 August 2007 (UTC) :::TCFA issued. 10 bucks says we get Felix outta this. Cyclone1(18:14 UTC -20/08/2007) :::Please let it head for the Carolinas. We need rain badly. 4.152.3.6 20:16, 20 August 2007 (UTC) ::::Don't get too excited, there's not even a low pressure center around this thing and Lord knows we don't need a hurricane down here, just a rainstorm to cool us off. -- SkyFury 20:21, 20 August 2007 (UTC) :::::There most certainly is a low pressure, albeit broad. It's forecast to head NW, then W, then SW, then into Florida. SHIPS takes it to 70kts. Cyclone1(20:40 UTC -20/08/2007) ::::::It also has an anticyclone over it. Conditions are perfect. Cyclone1(20:46 UTC -20/08/2007) :::NHC's surface analysis says no low exists. -- SkyFury 21:03, 20 August 2007 (UTC) ::::That analysis is nearly 12 hours old. Cyclone1(21:33 UTC -20/08/2007) I think we're splitting hairs here. The point is it's not much and I have heard nothing from NHC saying there's a low pressure. It could develop, but it will be at least this weekend before that happens, it's just too disorganized to get anywhere fast. -- SkyFury 21:51, 20 August 2007 (UTC) :Danger area. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/203526.shtml?basin#contents Cyclone1(22:44 UTC -20/08/2007) ::Yep, we may have Felix on our hands soon. - Enzo Aquarius 23:11, 20 August 2007 (UTC) :::I still don't think we'll have anything to worry about until at least Friday. -- SkyFury 23:32, 20 August 2007 (UTC) Worsening conditions. No more danger area. --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 16:25, 21 August 2007 (UTC) Gone. Cyclone1(20:25 UTC -21/08/2007) :You were saying something about a Felix? -- SkyFury 21:05, 22 August 2007 (UTC) ::Uh.. err... well you see... uh.. Oh, shut up! "Informal Betting for Strongest 2005 storm name: Lee- HurricaneEric" Hah! Cyclone1(02:03 UTC -23/08/2007) :::Cute. I made that bet over two years ago, Cyclone1. -- SkyFury 22:24, 23 August 2007 (UTC) ::::I was just making a joke, dude. I know there's know way you could have predicted the strength of Lee before the season started. And several models were calling for the development of a storm from 92L at the time, so you can understand my prediction. Cyclone1(00:55 UTC -24/08/2007) :::::Suuure you were...;) -- SkyFury 17:04, 25 August 2007 (UTC) Week 4 AoI: Extratropical cyclone west of Azores You guys gotta see thins thing! http://i40.photobucket.com/albums/e244/zdtadmin/GOES15452007237xFin2R.jpg It looks like a the beginning of several extratropical-origin hurricanes I've seen. (Noel, Perfect Storm, Vince, Epsilon etc.) No mention from the NHC, but this cyclone should be remembered! Cyclone1(17:38 UTC -25/08/2007) :It has a low-level rotation to it. I emailed the NHC asking what they thought about it (since it's not even in the TWD). I'll post the response if I receive one. Cyclone1(18:01 UTC -25/08/2007) ::It wasn't mentioned in the TWD because, well, it's not tropical. And, the water it's over is only 20-22 degrees. Even Epsilon had warmer temperatures than that. If it does become a freak of nature and make the transition, I will eat my words, but as of right now, I can't see anything (sub)tropical coming from this. Cainer91 20:33, 25 August 2007 (UTC) :::It's just a frontal system. Most occluded lows have LLCs.--Coredesat 00:41, 26 August 2007 (UTC) ::::Yeah, I spotted that one about two days ago. It's certainly an extratropical system, but a very impressive one. -- SkyFury 00:39, 27 August 2007 (UTC) It's impressive signature has fallen apart. Dead. I would post an image of it this morning, but I can't seem to access GIBBS. When I click on a time, all I get is a link saying "Satellite Image." Oh well... Cyclone1(02:06 UTC -27/08/2007) 06L.Felix Major Hurricane Felix 125 mph. Pressure at 964. If anyone's keeping score, pressure fell 16mbar in 3 hours. Cyclone1(18:08 UTC -2/09/2007) :And winds rose 20kt. 130.64.137.61 18:09, 2 September 2007 (UTC) ::Recon flight found flight level winds of 132 knots, which equates to 140 mph. So, unless the NHC is in denial, Felix will be a Category 4 at 5:00. Felix's eye also has a stadium effect going on. |'C A I N E R'||''ninety-one| 19:25, 2 September 2007 (UTC) :::Recon also found a minimum pressure of 957. Felix is bombing. 'Cyclone1(19:30 UTC -2/09/2007) 140 MPH, 956 MB, Category 4 as of the 5PM update. It's gone from Category 1 to Category 4 in 15 hours ; from 2 to 4 in 6 hours. Impressive. --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 20:51, 2 September 2007 (UTC) :(confliction) - Jesus Christ! 105-140 mph in less than 12 hours is obscene. A Category 5 passing right by Honduras is not a pleasant thought. Lest we forget, the last time that happened was a little guy named Mitch. This season is turning crazy. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 21:05, 2 September 2007 (UTC) Felix is predicted to move over a warm eddy in the Caribbean...Anita did something similar itself in the Gulf of Mexico...look what happened. Felix is really starting to freak me out. Jake52 My island 21:27, 2 September 2007 (UTC) :Felix looks amazing on visible satellite, maybe even better than Dean. It's eye was 30 nm last night, but now it's only 12 nm, with a spectacular stadium effect. The last time there was a stadium eye in the Atlantic was Wilma. Not a good sign. The only thing that will hold it back from more rapid strengthening is an Eyewall Replacement Cycle, which will probably occur in the next 24 hours. But, then it has even warmer waters and perfect shear to deal with, so it could become even more powerful. Not a good situation, in any case. |C A I N E R||''ninety-one''| 21:45, 2 September 2007 (UTC) :Do you guys realize that if Felix is upgraded to a category five by 11pm, it will have gone from TS to category five in 24 hours? That's only been accomplished twice in world history. Forrest, and Wilma. ''Cyclone1(21:59 UTC -2/09/2007) ::I don't think that's going to happen but I do think that there is a good chance this thing could become a five, the second in less than a month. Felix is more compact than Dean right now, so the damage could be localized. But the news is not good. This could be Central America's year. -- [[User:SkyFury|'''''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|''Fury]] 22:07, 2 September 2007 (UTC) :::Jesus, this storm looks fantastic on visible! This storm, imo, is a better-looking storm than Dean ever was. I'm almost scared of what I'll find when I get back from work in about 6 hours. Bob rulz 22:58, 2 September 2007 (UTC) :::(edit conflict!)I predict peak strength cat 5, cat 4 landfall on '''Belize City', this is not going to be a pretty sight. Reminds you of any other Belize hurricanes, perhaps even Fifi? Hope not! (If you haven't checked, I'm AstroHurricane001 on english wp) 2007Astro'sHurricane 23:02, 2 September 2007 (UTC) ::::Felix looks spectacular. Much better than Dean ever did, and it is most definitely the most symmetrical storm in the Atlantic since at least Rita. I can't see how this won't be a Category 5. Oh, and recon reported a central pressure of 935 mbar, which is a insane drop of 21 mbars in just about 3 hours. Amazing. |'C A I N E R'||''ninety-one| 23:31, 2 September 2007 (UTC) Category 5 Hurricane Felix Vortex message just came in. Recon found surface winds of 163 knots in the NE quadrant. Felix is now an 185 mph storm, and is still forcast to strengthen. All I can say is... Wow. |'C A I N E R||''ninety-one''| 23:58, 2 September 2007 (UTC) Mission was aborted because of the strength... this storm has intensified fastest to category 5, faster than Wilma and Forrest. It took 16 advisories for Wilma to hit Cat 5. :My God! That's incredible! NHC says 145 knots, which is official. And they forecast it to continue strengthening. I have nothing to say to that. All that comes out is noises like "Wow." The Caribbean this year has been like the Gulf of Mexico in 2005: An absolute cauldron. Remember, at this point that season, we'd had the same number of Category 5's we've had so far this year (although Emily was still believed to have been a four). -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 00:31, 3 September 2007 (UTC) Looks like this one is in it for the long haul. It's projected to keep strengthening, and maintain Category 5 status longer than Allen did. Currently, it has the highest pressure of any reliably-recorded Category 5, though, which is odd. (I always thought Carla was a bit of an anomaly at 931 mbar.) 130.64.137.61 00:24, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :A testament to the strength of Felix: "A DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT LANDED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT." So, they dropped it SW of the eye, and when it hit the water, it had flown half way across the cyclone. Crazy. |C A I N E R||''ninety-one''| 00:39, 3 September 2007 (UTC) ::HaHaHaHa! That insane. That's a bad day right there. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 01:12, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :::Wow i have only just got on at 2am our time and i am amazed to See a Cat Five Hurricane - I Wonder how long it will be before the NHC Refer to the Cat food (lol) Jason Rees 01:18, 3 September 2007 (UTC) Good frelling God, two C-5s in under two weeks. 2005 never even came close to giving us that. --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 02:42, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :Nope. 11 pm advisory has been a hair slow coming (not surprised). The forecast advisory said the winds are still 165 but the pressure has fallen a bit to 930mb. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 03:02, 3 September 2007 (UTC) ::Wonder how far that pressure will fall. Given that the damnable thing is about to hit the high-heat content areas, I'm not too optimistic (for humanity. For us hurricane fanatics...I don't think Felix is quite done wowing us). --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 03:12, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :First thing I thought when I saw the 11pm advisory was "Did someone feed Felix some Wheaties?" The last time I checked it (advisory 8) it was at 105mph. That's what I get from staying away from the internet this weekend. I'll hate to see what it's like when I wake up. Wxdiva 03:46, 3 September 2007 (UTC) Anyone else hoping the Felix will follow the southerly tracks and end up in the Gulf of Tehuantepec? '''Other IP 04:49, 3 September 2007 (UT :I told you I was afraid what it would be like when I got back from work. This is one of the most rapidly-intensifying storms ever, and it hasn't even hit the highest heat content yet! This is insane. And it's hard to really hope it goes anywhere specific; it's going to be destructive no matter what. Bob rulz 04:52, 3 September 2007 (UTC) ::Dean was a disaster and not a catastrophe. Unfortunately, that's probably the kind of distinction we're looking for again. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 05:21, 3 September 2007 (UTC) Can't help but note that IR pictures of Felix are starting to show an annular shape. Please may I be just overexaggerating it. Jake52 My island 07:12, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :The name Felix has been used 4 times already and all became hurricanes and 3 became major hurricanes... 1995 has a Cat. 4 Felix, 2001 has a Cat. 3 Felix, 2007 has a Cat. 5 Felix... RoswellAtup 08:15, 3 September 2007 ::What do you expect with a name that literally means "successful or lucky"? Love to find out why the name, having this been said, was even put on the list.Jake52 My island 07:51, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :::Probably it and Oscar were put on the lists by someone who liked the ''The Odd Couple. Other IP 19:06, 3 September 2007 (UTC) Felix appears to be undergoing an eye-wall replacement cycle now with a tighter eye area. Perhaps more strength to come? - Enzo Aquarius 15:47, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :It'll weaken initially, but the windfeild will get larger (if the is infact an EWRC). If Felix hits Nicaragua as a category five, not only will it be catastrophic. It will be the only season in world wide histroy in which the two first hurricanes of the season were landfalling category five force storms. Cyclone1(16:17 UTC -3/09/2007) ::It would be the only season with two landfalling Fives, period. In each of the three previous multiple Cat-5 seasons (60, 61, 05), none of the Fives actually made landfall as such (Donna at 4, Ethel at 1 in 1960, Carla at 4, Hattie at 4 in 1961, Emily at 4, Katrina at 3, Rita at 3, and Wilma at 4). --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 17:05, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :::That's what it's forecast to do. Doesn't mean it's going to happen, but it's the forecast. Felix doesn't look as mean now as it did yesterday. I assume it still hasn't passed over that warm eddy. The forecast still calls for some strengthening. The pressure is really high. Guillaume, you're right. 1961 was the closest when Carla and Hattie weakened just before landfall. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:11, 3 September 2007 (UTC) Very strange to have such a strong and well-formed storm with high pressure. Of course the eye formation and wind speed correlate very strongly, pressure is only the driving engine. We've seen in the past that small storms can have stronger winds with higher pressure, presumably because not as much power is needed to drive strong winds at a smaller size. But Felix goes even beyond what Andrew showed in this area, and any older storms with strong winds/high pressure cannot be considered as reliable data. Hypothetically, freezing of water in the air will provide additional energy for the storm, comparable (per volume of water involved) to the amount provided by condensation. If this occurred in significant amounts and the ice pellets didn't thaw until they hit the water, this would be an additional engine for the storm. The presence of groupel (ice) in the storm at high and low altitutes suggests this. But is there any precedent? How many hurricanes have ice in them? Seems very strange. Jdorje 17:38, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :I left for two days. I thought I'd see cat 3 Felix. This is insane. This is just frickin' wrong. This could be worse than Fifi. Have there ever been 2 cat fives in a row? God... [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 17:49, 3 September 2007 (UTC) ::Indeed, absent for a day and look what I miss. :P To my recollection, I can't recall 2 Cat 5s in a row, and, as mentioned above, there has never been 2 Cat 5. landfalls in a row. - Enzo Aquarius 17:59, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :::Before edit conflict: - Eric? Beware the first storm of September indeed. I've looked at this and a picture and it's already starting to scare me. Goddang, I am ALWAYS away when everything fun happens! (Dean AND Felix!) [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 18:00, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :::Same thing, buddy : ) [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 18:00, 3 September 2007 (UTC) Now down to 145 winds, but is forecast to re-strengthen. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 18:08, 3 September 2007 (UTC) Fluctuations - Downgraded Cat 4 Felix Just put this up because there's an excuse to. You can read the above post to see what's happening. This thing is so intense that the models literally forecast it to rapidly de-intensify so that it can comply with the laws of physics (naughty Felix, naughty naughty law-breaking Felix!). [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 18:14, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :I think Felix is reorganizing a bit. Look at it this way: a Category 5 is like a heavy metal singer; he screams really loud but eventually he's going to have to take a break and get some water. That's what I think Felix is doing right now. He's become noticably less organized. The decrease in organization is consistant with an ERC (Emily dropped to a Cat 2 because of an ERC early in her life). -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 18:34, 3 September 2007 (UTC) ::Tis a Category 4 now, according to CNN.com - Enzo Aquarius 18:35, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :::According to EVERYBODY, actually. Eric, well... Yeah, actually. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 18:40, 3 September 2007 (UTC) ::::Heavy metal singer? ; ) [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 18:41, 3 September 2007 (UTC) Eye is regaining definition, if that means anything, plus it's contracting. It could be just a fluctuation, possibly one caused by flat-lining straight from rapid intensification. It doesn't look like an ERC at this point, but they can come out of nowhere, and central convection is being pushed away from the eye. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 18:44, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :Does anyone mind if I archive most of this stuff, because it's really ticking me off that it takes .5-3 minutes to load the page. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 19:40, 3 September 2007 (UTC) ::(grr, IP you talk too much!) :Umm, yeah that kinda looks like a pinhole eye, doesn't it. This could be bad (my favorite understatement. It came from a movie but that's a long story). -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 19:45, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :::Archived it, the warning feature is gone. And I'd say that "bad" for a cat 5 monster ramming into Honduras is the biggest understatement anyone here's made for at least a week. Sorry about the talking thing, who else is going to say all of that? [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 19:49, 3 September 2007 (UTC) ::::The eye looks almost as small as Wilma's... [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 20:23, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :::::Looks like a cat five now (eye is no longer around 6 or 7 nm small though, but I'm not entirely sure). [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 20:54, 3 September 2007 (UTC) ...But it's not. Down to 135 mph now, 953 milibars. I predict landfall as a strong cat three, but restrengthening is possible prior to then. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 20:58, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :That's a pleasant surprise. It appears Central America just got lucky. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 21:11, 3 September 2007 (UTC) ::Unfortunately, it doesn't make much difference how strong it is, it's going to hit as a strong major hurricane in Northern Nicaragua/Honduras, and it's going to raise itself some real hell. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 21:14, 3 September 2007 (UTC) It appears that they have Downgraded Felix to 115k Winds, but from looking at the most recent Sat. Img... it looks like Felix has intensified majorly. Pinhole eye, deep convection, and a well formed eyewall. :Whew.. down to 135. Let's hope this weakening continues. 'Cyclone1(21:46 UTC -3/09/2007) ::71.7.217.94 (the guy above cyclone1's post) may be right. I'd say so, however, because the central part of the storm has expanded, which is what happened when Dean exploded. I still can't believe this. This is unreal to me. [[User:68-100-190-56|'''IP]] 22:33, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :::An hour or so ago, I would have agreed with you but now I'm siding with NHC. Felix looks significantly less organized. Plenty of weaker storms have small eyes. I just looked at one in my archives (Nora, 2003). As I thought, Felix went into a prolonged ERC and doesn't appear to be coming out of it very well. It is fast running out of water. Small-eyed storms are not very stable and prone to dramatic changes in intensity. We have just seen that here. Lest we forget, Fifi wasn't even a major hurricane when it killed 8,000 people. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:09, 3 September 2007 (UTC) ::::Mmm. Not so much sure about the reasons why, but it does look weakened. If it had more ocean, I would guess it would stabilize at around 125 mph, then reintensify, but I would guess that's probably what it'll hit Central America at. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 23:24, 3 September 2007 (UTC) Stays at 135 mph. Might actually intensify, but not much past 140 mph. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 23:53, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :Looks really good now after dark. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 00:55, 4 September 2007 (UTC) ::Latest advisories are in with Felix still a Category 4. Restrengthening is possible before landfall (which is predicted to occur in less than 12 hours) NHC's track has been changed again, leaving Felix entirely on land after the upcoming landfall. - Enzo Aquarius 02:54, 4 September 2007 (UTC) Heading to the Gulf of Tehuantepec keeps looking likelier and likelier with now multiple models predicting that, but not a majority. However, with it having to go over 700 to 1000 km of land en route, the question is, if he does go that way, will it have degraded so much that it'll lose it's name? 'Other IP' 06:20, 4 September 2007 (UTC) 93L.INVEST http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html Gulf of Mexico. Looks like it could very well spin up into something before landfall, but I'm NOT betting on ANYTHING, ANYMORE. 'Cyclone1(16:55 UTC -26/08/2007) :Window closing. It has less than 12 hours to develop. ''Cyclone1(22:07 UTC -26/08/2007) ::Needs more water. It's outta time. -- SkyFury 00:47, 27 August 2007 (UTC) 95L.INVEST Good chance of developing... RoswellAtup 02:12 30 August 2007 (UTC) :Not in the short term, sheer is high, but forcast to weaken. It's drifting south, maybe it'll form sometime on Friday. 'Cyclone1(22:23 UTC -29/08/2007) ::Just for archiving purposes, this is the low off the southeast coast. Cyclone1(22:36 UTC -29/08/2007) :::That looks kinda decent actually. Don't you think it's wierd that we've had only ONE hurricane so far? I think this season might be a bust (watch as 94 and 95 develop into hurricanes tomorrow as a direct result of my pessimism!). IP 23:12, 29 August 2007 (UTC) ::::A couple models develop this, though I question their accuracy. IP 23:29, 29 August 2007 (UTC) GFDL as a hurricane off to no-where, Alex style. IP 11:14, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :Mmm.... Interesting... Anyone know what that thing to the northeast of it is? IP 11:18, 30 August 2007 (UTC) ::CMC goes Dean-like, cat-4 in open ocean :0 IP 11:20, 30 August 2007 (UTC) Weakening, says the NHC. IP 13:18, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :Dissipated. IP 16:56, 30 August 2007 (UTC) AoI: Central Caribbean Made the TWO and it said some slow development could occur. The upper level environment doesn't suck, but it's not ideal either. I find it more interesting, however, than the thing/nothing off Africa. If there's anything to watch out there, it's this. It has a well defined spin to the clouds but no LLCC, says NHC. Convection is also minimal. -- SkyFury 00:45, 27 August 2007 (UTC) :Could flare up tonight, we may have an actual player on our hands. Or a 94L that last for 12 hours like the last two INVESTS. Who knows? Cyclone1(02:01 UTC -27/08/2007) ::NHC seems less enthusiastic about it now. -- SkyFury 16:35, 27 August 2007 (UTC) :::Major super crazy convection flare! Looks like it will be 95L soon. (Cyclone1 logged out) 01:23, 29 August 2007 (UTC) ::::Meh, nevermind. Cyclone1(22:16 UTC -29/08/2007) "Major super crazy convection flare!" I will treasure that one :P. Anyway, I have no idea what you're talking about, could someone point it out to me?. IP 23:40, 29 August 2007 (UTC) :Haha, yeah I have my moments. I followed that with "Meh, nevermind" (which is another phrase I use a lot when my predictions don't come to fruition) because the convection moved inland. I'll probably say that at least 10 more times before the season ends. :P Cyclone1(21:44 UTC -30/08/2007) 96L.INVEST & 97L.INVEST prior to NHC confirmation Up on the NRL, and they actually look pretty good. Theres the thing near 95L and then the thing in the Bay of Champeche. Neither one is up at INVEST level on NHC, but they both (I believe) made the TWO. IP 11:57, 30 August 2007 (UTC) 96L.INVEST Up on NHC, and it looks really good. IP 13:17, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :Wow, the NRL is going INVEST crazy! It looks pretty nice, but also looks like it's slowly missing its chance to develop. Cyclone1(20:43 UTC -30/08/2007) ::GFDL still makes it a hurricane, and SHIPS puts it at 57 knots. I'm not so sure. I give it a 40% chance (down from 60 earlier) IP 21:53, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :::Wow. It already has a very nice circulation, all it needs is deeper convection. That could happen tonight. Cyclone1(22:17 UTC -30/08/2007) It also could not happen tonight. I think, though, that it will form tomorrow night to the day after (perhaps sooner) and I give it a 70% chance of doing so. 40% chance before that. To clarify. That 40% is not for overall formation. IP 22:23, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :A valid point. However, it looks like it better happen soon. It's window is slowly closing. Cyclone1(22:37 UTC -30/08/2007) ::Hmmm... You might be right about formation tonight. It looks better than it did a half hour ago. IP 23:11, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :::This thing really looks like it has an LLCC. Sure looks like a tropical depression to me. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:26, 30 August 2007 (UTC) Hey Cyclone1, do you think you might have your "TD 5 and 6" situation happen here in real life? It's a real possibility at this point. IP 23:35, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :Somebody actually read my Hypothetical Hurricane season?! I'm flattered! I don't think so. Only one low, and my fake depressions formed from small mesoscale cyclones. Anyway, Eric. There is most definitely a LLCC. http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBas19.png It is a TD by definition (kinda). BTW, nice signature! Wherever did you get the idea? Hehe. ;) 'Cyclone1(00:46 UTC -31/08/2007) ::I've been to the user pages of most of the people here. And scoured over them. I don't get Eric's. I don't think so either, but hey, the fact that there is about a point zero five or six percent chance that they'll form at the same time is interesting, eh? Ok, not really, but it is my way of telling you that I A) don't hate you and B) have lots of time on my hands. And yes, it's looking darn good. I wish there was more convection though, but the visible looked really good before sundown. IP 00:54, 31 August 2007 (UTC) :::Haha! Hey, you think you have a lot of time on YOUR hands? I'm the guy writing it! :P I like Eric's page. He's an excellent writer and I enjoy reading his long posts like that (such as the Gordon Rant, which has been taken down). Anyway, 96L and 94L could definitely form at the same time, just the reason I included 5 and 6 together was because they were so close together, and so similar in every detail. ''Cyclone1(01:05 UTC -31/08/2007) ::::Which one, his wikipedia page or his hurricane-wikia page? I like his wikipedia page. And you haven't updated that thing significantly since who knows when! You're still on 07L! I'm the one who has to stay here all day posting updates every half hour! And I never said Eric wasn't a good writer. Most of us here are. It's just his page kinda freaks me out. It's overbearing. Kinda. And I was referring to the... Whoa! We're having, like, multiple civilish arguments. I just noticed that. And by the td-5, td-6 thing, anyway, I'm sorry, it wasn't very clear; I meant that the NHC had trouble figgering out which came first, that's what I was referring to. Also, BTW, I think your page is the best in the category, simply because it's not by Allistor Moody (No offense to him, but 220 MPH winds? Cat 5 hit on DC? C'mon!). Now, let's talk about the INVEST! IP 01:14, 31 August 2007 (UTC) :::::His Wikia page. Well written. Yeah I know, I never update it like I should. I'll get time one day. I don't think we're arguing, just light, off-topic conversation. On the 5-6 thing, gotcha. And thank you! I put a lot of effort in my HH's I'm one of the very few that actually uploads images. Alastor Moody does go overboard a lot, but I guess it's his freedom. And, ok yes. Invest. On topic, hooray. So uh... how about that 96L, huh? 'Cyclone1(01:25 UTC -31/08/2007) Holy geez! TCFA issued! Something new to discuss! Woo hoo! Cyclone1(01:29 UTC -31/08/2007) I was about to say it was waning! This is fantabulous (I never use that word in public???) (editconflicted)! That's some good INVEST, eh? IP 01:34, 31 August 2007 (UTC) :Just goes to show you, you can't always trust the satellite. I'd say at this rate, a depression is likely, possibly by 11pm-5am. Cyclone1(01:39 UTC -31/08/2007) ::Aww, look at it! It's soooooo cute! Much better this morning. NHC seems less enthusiastic about it, but the TCFA is still there. IP 11:04, 31 August 2007 (UTC) :::I think it's window has closed. Loss of centralized convection, with only cloud wisps available. It looks almost subtropical, but it's not. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 21:23, 31 August 2007 (UTC) ::::TWO confirms this. I have a proclamation to make: THE END OF THE WEEK OF INVESTS HAS COME UPON US. THIS MARKS THE DISSIPATION OF THE LAST INVEST PRIOR TO SEPTEMBER. HERE WE GO GUYS, HERE WE GO. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 21:40, 31 August 2007 (UTC) 97L.INVEST I don't think it has enough water, but it does look pretty nice. IP 13:17, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :Looking fair, I can see a possible depression out of this, maybe a 30% chance. Cyclone1(21:23 UTC -30/08/2007) ::I haven't seen it since 3:30, but it did look good. I give it slightly less, 20%. IP 21:54, 30 August 2007 (UTC) Dissipateding IP 11:04, 31 August 2007 (UTC) Nothing to see here... What the heck is that?! IP 23:57, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :Umm, nothing that I see. I see 95L in the Bay of Campeche and some debris it left behind, but nothing to get excited about. What's this about? -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 00:13, 31 August 2007 (UTC) ::I dunno... I saw something, I'm sure of that, but it's not there anymore... IP 00:23, 31 August 2007 (UTC) :::It must've been that I saw it somewhere else... BTW, it's 97L. Whatever it was that I saw, it's nothing. IP 00:25, 31 August 2007 (UTC) AoI: 700 miles east-southeast of Cape Race I'm not kidding guys. The NHC has included this in the TWO, saying it has begun to develope some tropical characteristics. I have no idea what the &%$#@ they're talking about, but they say they're watching on the edge of their seats. I personally think it looks like your average low pressure system, not to mention that there has never, ever, ever, ever, EVER been a formation NEAR that area. IP 16:54, 31 August 2007 (UTC) :It's started to develop persistent deep convection around it's center, and is looking pretty good. I ''think (but don't quote me on this) that if this does develop into Subtropical Storm Felix/Gabrielle, it would be the most northerly forming storm on record. Go figure? Cainer91 19:48, 31 August 2007 (UTC) ::I think, Cainer, you'd be right. I dunno what's up with it, it's interesting. Whoever did it, thanks for fixing the 'o', I didn't notice that (I'm an excessive shifter). [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 21:06, 31 August 2007 (UTC) :::Do what?! Wow, that's awesome!! Looks like Epsilon! We could have a record setter on our hands, guys! Cyclone1(21:12 UTC -31/08/2007) Whoa, boy, calm down! It does look nice, but the SSTs aren't fabulous, and it still only barely has SOME Tropical characteristics. But hey, it's not like it's not interesting! [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 21:15, 31 August 2007 (UTC) :You're right. It's just super crazy far north, and it looks that good. AND it's nearly stationary. So, add all this together = crazy Cyclone1. :P Cyclone1(21:24 UTC -31/08/2007) ::The convection around the center is a nice touch though. It's been flung around all day by the low. Surprised it has that much way up. So what are our odds? I guess 3% subtropical/very powerful extra-tropical and .2% tropical depression. 0% for higher than depression. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 21:28, 31 August 2007 (UTC) :::Wow, our percentages differ greatly. 65-75% Subtrop/tropical storm. 10% Hurricane. 0.2% Nothing. It is already stronger than depression strength. Cyclone1(21:37 UTC -31/08/2007) What?! Nobody told me of this! I'll revise! First option up 20%, second up 10%, third up 5%. I need to see this system do something significant before I go Cyclone1-ing (v. Overreacting to things. Lots of things.) ; ) [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 21:45, 31 August 2007 (UTC) :Yeah man. Winds could be up to 70mph right now. Easily. (Cyclone1-ing. Haha, I like that.) Cyclone1(21:52 UTC -31/08/2007) :Ok, put them all up another 75%, special. Yeah, I think I'll add that to my dictionary. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 21:55, 31 August 2007 (UTC) ::BTW, that's not adding 75%, that's adding 75% of the current values. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 22:16, 31 August 2007 (UTC) :::Dude! It looks like a Perfect Storm sequel up there! I'm not sure what kind of chance it has but a storm up there would be really cool. To my knowledge, a storm has never formed that far north, although plenty have come close. After a rough perusal of archives, Cesar in 1984 is the furthest north I saw. It formed at about 39 degrees north latitude. Of course, Hurricane Faith in 1966 stayed tropical past 60 north, so they've been up there. Faith came pretty close to hitting Norway as a tropical hurricane. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:47, 31 August 2007 (UTC) You can have non-tropical hurricanes?! Seriously though (I've said that about 12 times so far), it's a very interesting feature to watch, and yeah, it does kinda look like the Perfect Storm... [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 23:54, 31 August 2007 (UTC) :Yes you can have non-tropical hurricanes. They're rare, but they happen, most recently in 1979. There was also one in 1968. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 00:07, 1 September 2007 (UTC) ::Wouldn't those just be extraordinarily powerful Sub-Trops though? Because wouldn't a powerful Sub-Trop not have all the same characteristics as a hurricane, thus rendering it a non-hurricane? [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 00:14, 1 September 2007 (UTC) ::Yes, they are still call subtropical storms. Even though they are rightfully hurricanes. This thing however, looks to be wanting to join the warm core family. (BTW, Eric, say your post on my wiki page, currently responding the top ten seasons of all time. Yeah, ten, I'm sick and bored and there's nothing on TV, and my computer won't acces YouTube right now. So yeah, 10) 'Cyclone1(00:24 UTC -1/09/2007) :::I love that. "Even though they are rightfully hurricanes". I'm keeping that one too ; ) [[User:68-100-190-56|'''IP]] 00:28, 1 September 2007 (UTC) ::::Haha, I tend to give hurricanes human like qualities all the time. It's something you learn to ignore. XD Cyclone1(00:39 UTC -1/09/2007) :::::Oh yea! I was worried the talk pages were broken there for a little while, Cyclone1. I left several people messages and 24 hours later not one had responded. I was wondering if they had gotten through. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 02:28, 1 September 2007 (UTC) Looks like the door is closing for this dark horse. According to the latest TWO, it's looking less and less likely that we'll see anything coming from this system. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 02:48, 1 September 2007 (UTC) :Ahh man. This one looked so awesome! I'm gonna go lock myself in my room to think about cold core storms, put on my favorite AFI cd, and cry... *runs away to be emo* 'Cyclone1(03:01 UTC -1/09/2007) ::Cyclone1, calm down...gimme the knife and turn off the My Chemical Romance CD ;D. There will be others, I guarantee you, there will be others. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 04:09, 1 September 2007 (UTC) :::Read the header. There will most likely never be a stationary storm with significant convection that is 700 miles east-southeast of Cape Race with potential for development. :::No, it'll be around 300 hundred miles. [[User:68-100-190-56|'''IP]] 14:02, 1 September 2007 (UTC) ::::I'm better. I stopped singing "Iris" long enough to watch Felix. Not that that's not a good song... "And I Don't want the world to see me... cuz' I don't think that they'd understand..." Cyclone1(22:37 UTC -1/09/2007) :::::Hey, I like that song! There nothing emo about that, that really happens to people. How about Blue October's 'Into the Ocean': "Into the ocean end it all, into the ocean end it all (repeat five more times). -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 01:42, 2 September 2007 (UTC) Haha, Love that song. But hey, I'll be just fine pretending I'm not. I'm far from lonely, and it's all that I've got. What's the worst thing I could say? "I've become so numb, that I can't feel you there,"? Pardon me while I burst into flames. I've had enough of the world and it's people's mindless games. I never said I lie and wait forever. I've got another confession my friend, I'm no fool. Hey, tell me what you thought about when you were gone and so alone.... If that sounded like mindless rambling, then we don't share the same taste in music. XD 'Cyclone1(02:38 UTC -2/09/2007) :Sorry, boredom. ''Cyclone1(02:38 UTC -2/09/2007) ::Pass the bong ;D -- [[User:SkyFury|'''''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|''Fury]] 21:07, 2 September 2007 (UTC) :::No, get your own. :P 'Cyclone1(22:31 UTC -2/09/2007) ::::HaHaHaHaHa! -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 01:46, 3 September 2007 (UTC) September Week 1 98L.INVEST That new wave out in the Atlantic has gained a lot of convection and is now an invest. In fact, this thing already looks close to a tropical depression. Bob rulz 12:51, 1 September 2007 (UTC) :I wouldn't be surprised, looking at the models. The thing on top of the page had similar aspirations. And, it is SEPTEMBER. [[User:68-100-190-56|'''IP]] 14:02, 1 September 2007 (UTC) ::Look at it... isn't it beautiful? [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 14:11, 1 September 2007 (UTC) :::I'm betting 40% chance for to become Gabrielle RoswellAtup 15:07, 1 September 2007 (UTC) ::::You know what? I'd up the stakes about 15%. This guy is looking pretty good. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 15:13, 1 September 2007 (UTC) SHIPS puts it at hurricane, cat 1+ [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 18:08, 1 September 2007 (UTC) :The last thing we need a Cape Verde party. Dean, Felix,... -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 18:35, 1 September 2007 (UTC) ::Floater's been put up. And look at the GFDL model, a hurricane as well. Imagine what could happen if it goes up the East Coast, or maybe a Frances-esque track. This is an unfriendly bout of Westerners. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 19:21, 1 September 2007 (UTC) :::Convection flaring close to the center of low pressure (there should be a word for that other than "center"). [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 19:25, 1 September 2007 (UTC) HWRF goes ''eerily similar to Dean. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 19:30, 1 September 2007 (UTC) :NOAA is stating a possible formation in the next 48 hours. Dean, then Felix, and Gabrielle? We shall find out in the next day or two. - Enzo Aquarius 01:39, 2 September 2007 (UTC) ::Looking awfully ominous right now. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 01:46, 2 September 2007 (UTC) :::Or maybe not, it's looking less organized. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 01:50, 2 September 2007 (UTC) ::::It looks pretty terrible right now, but it's moving into an area of less shear, and the environment is a lot moister than when 94L came through, so I still think it has a chance to develop. |'C A I N E R||''ninety-one''| 02:19, 2 September 2007 (UTC) :Because, you know, Felix already set to hit more or less the exact same area as Dean and at major hurricane strength wasn't bad enough news. --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 06:10, 2 September 2007 (UTC) Any hope of this heading for the Carolina Coast? We need the rain badly. '''Other IP 06:55, 2 September 2007 (UTC) :It looks terrible right now. I don't see anything coming from this for a while. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 21:09, 2 September 2007 (UTC) ::Yeah, too bad. (Other IP XD). But not really, considering what's happening over there near the Yucatan. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 17:55, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :::Dissipated. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 00:13, 4 September 2007 (UTC) 99L.INVEST AoI: Off Georgia Coast There's a low associated with a decaying frontal boundary, and could possibly develop into a topical depression. It's looks good at the moment, but we'll have to see if anything to worry about comes from this. |'C A I N E R||''ninety-one''| 17:22, 2 September 2007 (UTC) :Wow, that is impressive. I didn't even notice it (eyes automatically drawn to the major hurricane in the carib). I can see a TD out of this... at least a 99L. ''Cyclone1(18:31 UTC -2/09/2007) ::Hey, that's my house! That's MY...house! Don't be comin' into my house uninvited ;D. It's headed east though and could develop. Time will tell. -- [[User:SkyFury|'''''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|''Fury]] 21:12, 2 September 2007 (UTC) :::Holy cow! CMC puts this as a major hurricane ploghing for New England! Is this impossible? 2007Astro'sHurricane 23:18, 2 September 2007 (UTC) ::::Anything's possible in the tropics, but I wouldn't bet on it. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 01:43, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :::::-points to "interesting models" section below- Gotta love the CMC. Bob rulz 04:54, 3 September 2007 (UTC) ::::::Looking good, and it has NOAA's attention as well, issuing it's little '48 hour development' notice. - Enzo Aquarius 15:55, 3 September 2007 (UTC) Goddammit, this season just elevated itself to unheard of stature with double cat fives, and now this thing is rearing its ugly head (with a potential storm from 94L)! This is NOT (ok, it is) fun! [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 18:04, 3 September 2007 (UTC) 99L.INVEST There is a floater up monitoring this system on the NHC, declaring it "Invest" but not 99L. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 20:01, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :99L confirmed on NRL. Most models develop this one (CMC puts it at what looks like a new world record). [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 20:26, 3 September 2007 (UTC) ::Looks better that it did 24 hours ago and better than 98L. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 21:14, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :::I say 55% Gabrielle, and 75% TD-7. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 21:15, 3 September 2007 (UTC) ::::Looking very impressive! If that ridge builds, it should take whatever 99L becomes into the Mid Atlantic, or New England. Let's hope the ridge doesn't build. 'Cyclone1(21:54 UTC -3/09/2007) :::::The ridge is probably building as we speak. Anyway, if CMC is anywhere near the truth, the Yankees might be wiped out once and for all! Woohoo! But the rest of Manhattan might be wiped out... Woohoo! Seriously, there's some risky things up there. [[User:68-100-190-56|'''IP]] 22:25, 3 September 2007 (UTC) In a couple of days, we could see something but not before then I wouldn't think. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 23:18, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :Who said it was going to happen fast? ; ) [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 23:24, 3 September 2007 (UTC) ::The models are in. HWRF predicts a hurricane in a few days, w/ a depression soon and slow TS development. GFDL coming in soon. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 00:23, 4 September 2007 (UTC) :::GFDL as a moderate hurricane, keeping intensity over a few days. Both predict this thing to be HUGE. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 00:26, 4 September 2007 (UTC) ::::Some interesting models coming through, though what's most interesting is the one from LGEM, which puts it through central Florida into the Gulf of Mexico with a course towards Louisiana. :S - Enzo Aquarius 02:52, 4 September 2007 (UTC) INVEST reports Is there someplace where there is some text on the INVEST reports? The NRL site doesn't seem to carry text, until it reaches at least tropical depression status. 4.154.5.226 06:01, 3 July 2007 (UTC) :Not as far as I know. Bob rulz 17:26, 16 August 2007 (UTC) Interesting models I don't know if this is important, but I found a very interesting Fujiwhara interaction on an eight day old CMC forecast. Link 68-100-190-56 16:25, 16 August 2007 (UTC) :Edit - If anyone finds any really interesting models, it could be interesting to group them here. Here's one of four cyclones forming (again from CMC): Link 68-100-190-56 16:29, 16 August 2007 (UTC) ::Gotta love the CMC. Bob rulz 17:19, 16 August 2007 (UTC) :::The most recent one turns Dean into a cat 5. 68-100-190-56 18:05, 16 August 2007 (UTC) ::::I wouldn't rule that out. Bob rulz 18:29, 16 August 2007 (UTC) I would trust the CMC on that count at this point. 68-100-190-56 21:05, 16 August 2007 (UTC) Hmm... Sorry for the extra header, but we have plenty of them don't we? Anyway, there seems to be a (somewhat) consensus on the models that go out that far that in a few days, after this wave of Africa, we will have something tropical in nature. Check out the GFS and you'll see what I mean. Any ideas? IP 23:38, 29 August 2007 (UTC) Model predictions I remember last year seeing links to plots of model projections (on Wikipedia of course) for all invests. I can not seem to find the link, does anyone know what I'm talking about? -Runningonbrains 17:34, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :Hmm... No, I don't remember that. What kind of format were they in? IP 18:16, 30 August 2007 (UTC) Model runs and Model plots. -- RattleMan 22:11, 31 August 2007 (UTC) Model sites Could some of you provide the model sites you use? It would be very helpful to quite a lot of us. Thanks, IP 23:34, 30 August 2007 (UTC) :Here is a graphic model page that shows all the models at once. http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_96.gif Just change the 96 in the URL to whatever the current invest is to see the model plots. 'Cyclone1(00:56 UTC -31/08/2007) ::Thanks. I've been there before, but frankly, I had no idea what it was ^-^' IP 01:16, 31 August 2007 (UTC) 2 Cat5 no other hurricanes Fourth time we have had two Cat 5 hurricanes in a season. This is the first of these where we haven't had an earlier hurricane of another category. This seems pretty weird. If you start looking for things like this, you probably find them nevertheless it still seems weird. crandles 81.86.39.6 12:02, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :1958 1977 1980 1992 had a category 5 as first hurricane of season so probably not all that weird. crandles 81.86.39.6 12:19, 3 September 2007 (UTC) ::What probability would you put on it? If first hurricane of season being cat5 is a 1 in ten chance (5 times in 57 years from 1950 when records become reasonable) and there is also a 1 in 10 chance of a second cat 5 in a season (4th time since 1950) then perhaps a 1 in 4 chance (happened in 1960 not in other 2 years / 4 occasions) of no hurricanes between two cat 5 hurricanes. Is 1 in 400 years a reasonable assessment of how unusual? crandles 81.86.39.6 12:51, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :::If there's a 1/10 chance of the first hurricane being a cat5 and a 1/10 chance of the second hurricane being a cat5 that means there's a 1/100 chance of the first two hurricanes being cat5. Pretty simple eh. But that's not a large enough sample set to make any kind of judgement on. Surely climatology and the favorable environment in the caribbean while there's an unfavorable environment elsewhere is more to blame. 66.243.195.90 16:59, 3 September 2007 (UTC) ::::Both of you are somewhat incorrect, there has never been a statistical observation of two category fives forming one after another with only one storm in between (in the Atlantic basin) (Ethel was '''NOT a cat 5, and it shouldn't be considered one), thus raw statistics cannot be used to predict the probability of the event. That's pretty scary though. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 17:53, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :::::Discounting Ethel in 1960, this is the first time the first two hurricanes of the season were Category 5's. Another excuse for me to talk about just how amazing the West Pacific is: In 1997, that basin had three consecutive storms with winds of at least 180 mph! Man, I love that place! -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 21:20, 3 September 2007 (UTC) Then why don't you go live there? ; ) [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP']] 21:27, 3 September 2007 (UTC) :I may well be wrong about Ethel but if so, should List_of_notable_Atlantic_hurricanes#Category_5_hurricanes and Hurricane_Ethel_%281960%29 be edited? :I don't expect my estimate of the odds to be perfect - odds depend on your subjective Bayesian priors. Yes the past isn't necessarily a guide to the future and all that. However it should be possible to make a subjective estimate of the odds and what else are you going to base it on? If there's a 1/10 chance of the first hurricane being a cat5 and a 1/10 chance of the second hurricane being a cat5 that means there's a 1/100 chance of the first two hurricanes being cat5. Pretty simple eh. :Possibly but also possibly wrong. If they are independent yes but there is the possibility that there is an relationship that makes this untrue. What does the data indicate? 24 Cat 5s in 57 years occuring independently would mean an expectation of ~6 years from 1950 with two cat 5 but we have only had 3. Maybe this is just chance or maybe there is a relationship that makes them unlikely to occur in same year/close to one another. A more important question might be whether the answer is changing with time due to global warming. My estimate could be a long way out. :Re "raw statistics cannot be used to predict the probability of the event" they cannot be used to calculate the odds with confidence but if you accept there is going to be huge error margins and still want to try then the raw data may still help - what else you are going to use? - a weather/climate model perhaps but you are still going to need to use the data to see if your model is plausible. crandles 88.105.72.76 22:53, 3 September 2007 (UTC) ::In a chaotic system like weather, there is no way to predict long term trends on a mesoscale level. Weather forecasts beyond 15 days tend to be unreliable and at 30 days they have no meaning whatsoever. The facts are that there is no way. Plus, this entire chain of reasoning is flawed because there are fluctuations of factors on many levels, from 10 years to hundreds of years. And Ethel was officially a category five, but the results are so dubious that I consider it impossible. But why argue? The facts are that the chances of this are pretty darned small, because it's never happened before. [[User:68-100-190-56|'IP''']] 23:33, 3 September 2007 (UTC)